Structure and Violence

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.title[Violent Network Structure:]     
.subtitle[How Cooperative Networks Help and Constrain Violent Groups]  
        
           
.author[Laila A. Wahedi]  
.date[March 29, 2019]    
.institution[@lwahedi]      
.institution[McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University]      
<img style="width:20%"  src="../figures/seal.png">
   
           
           
           
.center[]       
        
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Terrorist Groups Don't Act Alone: </h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/train.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Train</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/trade.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Trade</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/operate.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Work <br> Together</h3>
</div>
</div>

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Is good for al Qaeda...</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/AQ.png" style="width:90%">
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">And good for al Shabaab</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/shabaab.png" style="width:90%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">But what's bad for one can hurt the rest</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/ice_cream.png" style="width:90%">
---

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">These chains compound: </h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/compound.png" style="width:70%">

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">Puzzle:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
   
   
   
#  How do patterns of partnerships constrain and enable violent groups?

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">Centralization:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
##  Extent to which one group has more influence than others within the network

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">High Centralization: Free Syrian Army</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
####  Semi-independent sub-groups fit into an ordered hierarchy 
<img src="../figures/structure/FSA.png" style="width:100%">

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">High Centralization: al Qaeda and ISIS</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
####  Alliances of independent groups formed around a strong actor

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">Low Centralization: Islamists in Syria</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
####  Independent groups with overlapping ties, no one stands out

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">Low Centralization: Syrian Rebels</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
####  Decentralized networks can still have structure

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; "><img src="../figures/structure/decent.png">Decentralized:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

</div>
<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; height:40%;float:top">
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/redundant.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Redundant Paths: </h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/autonomy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Autonomy</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Robust to Random Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/lost.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Inefficient</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/lazy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Free Riding</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/yarn.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Unraveling</h3>
</div>
</div>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">
<img style="max-height:2.5em" src="../figures/structure/cent.png">Centralized:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

</div>
<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; height:40%;float:top">
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/shortcut.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Information Shortcuts </h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/save-time.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Efficient</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Robust to Random Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/overwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Costly for Center</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/freedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Loses Freedom</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/one_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Targeted Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

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<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#AF002B;">
<img style="max-height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/freedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Loses Freedom</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#AF002B;">
<img style="max-height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/one_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Targeted Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

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<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/Xfreedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Trades For Efficiency</h3>
</div>

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; ;">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/Xfreedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Trades For Efficiency</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xone_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Evolves Around Strong Core</h3>
</div>
</div>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; "><img src="../figures/structure/decent.png">Structure and Security:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

</div>
<div style="height:40%;float:top">
<div style="width:33%; float:left; height:100%; background-color:#9BC53D">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/centralized_icon_a.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Centralization </h3>
</div>

<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; width:33%; height:100%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/leverage_sm_a.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Leverage</h3>
</div>
<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; width:33%; height:100%;float:left">
<img style="height:65%; padding-top:20px"  src="../figures/structure/reliability.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Security</h3>
</div>
</div>

<div style="background-color:#AF002B; width:33%; height:100%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/leverage_sm_ad.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Leverage</h3>
</div>

<div style="background-color:#AF002B; width:33%; height:80%; padding-top:20px; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/autonomy_a.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Loss of Autonomy</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left; padding-top:40px">
<img style="height:95%"  src="../figures/structure/insecure.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Insecurity</h3>
</div>
</div>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Implications</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">

<h1 style="text-transform: none; text-align: left;color:white;">Groups in centralized local networks should:</h1>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/birthday-cake.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Survive</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/machine-gun.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Mobilize Violence</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/education.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Learning</h3>
</div>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch1.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> Big Allied And Dangerous I</h2>
<h4> Cooperative Partnerships</h4>
<h4> Rivalries </h4>
<h4> Group-level covariates</h4>
<h4> Time-static</h4>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch2.png)
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> Terrorism Knowledge Base</h2>
<h4> Attack Event Data</h4>
<h4> Tactical Information</h4>
<h4> Event-level covariates</h4>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch3.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> All Together</h2>
<h3> Whether a partner has <br> used a tactic in <br>the past three years</h3>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Keystone: Hierarchical TNAM</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<img src="../figures/eq-trans.png" style="width:75%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results: Learning</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/tactic_effects_cent.png" style="width:100%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results: Lethality</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/results2.png" style="width:90%">
   
   
   
<h3>Groups in centralized local networks kill more people, and conduct more attacks </h3>
* Additive effect, no interaction
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results: Survival</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/structure/survival.png" style="width:100%">
		
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Backup</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
---
---
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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch4.png)
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Unpooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">

<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h3>Probability of adopting<br> a given tactic increases <br>when partners use the tactic in:</h3>
<h1> 16/17 tactics</h1>
<h1> 11/17 tactics significant</h1>
<h3>Small n, multiple tests</h3>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Pooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<img src='../figures/surv_trans.png' style="width:50%">
<h3 style = "margin-bottom:0px">.3 increase in P(adoption) when partners use it</h3>
<h4 style = "margin-top:0px"> Multiple dependent observations</h4>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Centralization</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/netcent.png" style="height:70%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Eigenvector Centrality</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/eig.png" style="height:70%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Lethality</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/leth.png" style="height:70%">
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