Migration

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.title[Forced Migration & Big Data:]     
.subtitle[Identifying Indirect Signals in Social Media Data]  
        
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi, PhD]  
.date[August 28, 2018]   
               
.institution[MDI, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University]      
<img style="width:20%"  src="../figures/seal.png">
   
           
           
           
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Faced with disaster, some families flee while others stay</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:50%"  src="../figures/migration/calendar.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>When</u> do they choose to flee?</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:50%"  src="../figures/migration/address.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Where</u> do they choose to go?</h3>
</div>
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background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">Important to understand because: </h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/science.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Science</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/aid.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Allocate Finite Aid</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/street.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Proactive Policy</h3>
</div>

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Problem: Data Availability in Disaster Areas</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/hourglass.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Time Resolution</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/mag_space.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Spatial Resolution</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/snail.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Time Delay</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:100%;float:left">
<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:center; margin-bottom:0px">Low Resolution Theories</h1>
</div>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Case: Iraqi Civil War, Battle of Mosul</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Solution: Social Media signals as <u>indirect</u> indicators of critical factors</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:50%"  src="../figures/migration/calendar.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br>When <u>specifically</u> do they choose to flee?</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:50%"  src="../figures/migration/address.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br>Where <u>specifically</u> do they choose to go?</h3>
</div>

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background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Value of Social Media Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/newspaper.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Mirrors info available to families</h3>
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<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/chat.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Available real-time</h3>
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<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/graph.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Validated against historical data</h3>
</div>

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background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Social Media Signals</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<br>
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Hundreds of English and Arabic hashtags and search-terms since 2014</h2>
<br>
<div style="width:24%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/abacus.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Volume</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:24%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/masks.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Sentiment</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:24%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/like.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Stance</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:24%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/newspaper.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Events</h3>
</div>

---
class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Modeling Challenges</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:55%"  src="../figures/migration/loud.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Noisy Data</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:55%"  src="../figures/migration/data_question.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Poor Data Environment</h3>
</div>
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class: center
background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Understand the Signals</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img style="max-width:85%"  src="../figures/migration/term_corr.png">
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Noisy but meaningful</h2>
---
class: center
background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Understand the Signals</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img style="max-width:70%"  src="../figures/migration/aq_terms.png">
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Noisy but meaningful</h2>
---
class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Solution: Isolate the signal</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Control for:</h2>
<br>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/home.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Origin Location</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/migration/tent.png">
<h3 style="color:white;"><br><u>Destination Location</h3>
</div>
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class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Hierarchical Bayesian Model</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
<img style="max-width:95%"  src="../figures/migration/Equations.png">
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class: center
background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">When  Families Flee</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img style="max-width:70%"  src="../figures/migration/effects_signals.png">
---
class: center
background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Signals Capture Violence</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img style="max-width:70%"  src="../figures/migration/effects_signals_death.png">
---
class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Where they Go</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
<img style="max-width:95%"  src="../figures/migration/Equations_dyad.png">
---
class: center
background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Where they go</h2>
<br>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img style="max-width:70%"  src="../figures/migration/dyad.png">
---
class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Next Steps</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<ul style="text-align:left;color:white">
<li> Continue to identify social media signals as indirect indicators for substantive factors</li>
<br>
<li> Integrate into broader models of forced migration</li>
<br>
<li> Identify high resolution factors across different contexts</li>
</ul>
<br><br><br><br><br><br>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Team</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
.left-column[
### Georgetown
* Lisa Singh
* Susan Martin
* Katharine Donato
* Elizabeth Ferris
* Rochelle Davis
* Laila Wahedi
* Abby Taylor
* Lara Kinne
* Nili Yossinger
* Chris Kirov
* Yanchen Wang
* Zheng Chai
* Yuan-Yao Chang
* Julie Hockett
* Jordan King
* Yifang Wei
]

.right-column[
### York
* Susan McGrath 
* Michaela Hynie
* Jennifer Hyndman
* Alison Mountz
* Julie Young
* Kim Rygiel
* Luann Good Gingrich
* Kazi Rahman
* Kira Williams
* Aijun An
* Jianhong Wu
* Jimmy Huang
* Forouq Khonsari
* Sadra Abrishamkar
]

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