Extremist Topic Diffusion

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.title[Jihadist War of Ideas]     
.subtitle[Tracking Diffusion of Topics from Extremist Statements]  
   
 
               
               
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi, PhD]  
.institution[MDI, McCourt School of Public Policy, <br> Georgetown University]      
               
   
 
.date[July 18, 2018]   
           
           
           
.center[]       
        
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<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/not_money.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Draw resources from affiliates </h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/not_territory.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Many groups have territory</h3>
</div>
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left;color:white;">What is Power?</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:top; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:55%">
<div style="width:100%;">
<img style="width:30%;align:middle"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/power_phys.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">How much work can be done over time.</h3>
<h3 style="color:white;">=</h3>
<h3 style="color:white;">How much energy can be expended at once.</h3>
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left;color:white;">What is Power?</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:top; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<div style="width:100%;">
<img style="width:30%;align:middle"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/power.png">
<br><br>
<h1 style="color:white;">Attaining Objectives Through Expenditure of Energy</h1>
</div>

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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left;color:white;">Substitutable Paths to Objectives</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<div style="width:100%;">
<img style="align:middle"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/subs_power.png">
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Influence</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/audience.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Advertising Audience</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/agenda.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Agenda Setting</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/legitimacy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Legitimacy</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/youtube.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Video Lectures and Statements</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/twitter.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Social Media</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/mag.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Magazines</h3>
</div>

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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left;color:white;">Measuring Influence</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<div style="height:100%;">
<img style="height:55%;align:middle"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/chatter.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Track topics and rhetoric through text from a target population after official statements</h3>
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Constructing the Measure</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/wash.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Select and Clean Text</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/topic.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Topic Modeling</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/compare.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Assess Influence</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/source.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Power Source</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Target Audience</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/file.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Separate Into Documents</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/cut.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Stem Words</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/filter.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Filter Words</h3>
</div>

---
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Identifying Content</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:60%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/matrix.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Topic Modeling</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Identify informative words that <strong>distinguish between </strong> clusters of documents.</p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/vector.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Document Embeddings</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Train context vectors in semantic space that can predict words in document, and compare distances.</p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/freq.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Word Importance</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Subtract frequency of each word in target text at t-1 from frequency in source. Take top n words.</p>
</div>
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Topic Modeling: Dimensionality Reduction</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/puzzle.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Good</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Distinguish topics within source text</p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/target_text.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Bad</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Care about target text: content may span whole magazine</p>
</div>

---

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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Assessing Topics</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Atheoretical, subjective</h2>
<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Sample clustered documents and important words</h2>
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>LDA did best with nouns, but still did poorly</li>
<li>NMF produced intuitive topics for both documents and words</li>
</ul>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">What are they saying?</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="max-width:49%; max-height:30%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/religion_cloud.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Religion</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:49%; height:30%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/conflict_cloud.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Conflict</h3>
</div>
<br>
<div style="width:49%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%; float:top"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/life_cloud.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Lifestyle</h3>
</div>

---

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Document Embeddings</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/vector.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Document Embeddings</h2>
<p style="color:white;"><p style="color:white;">Train context vectors in semantic space that can predict words in document, and compare distances.</p></p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/swap.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Good</h2>
<p style="color:white;"><br>Allows substitution of similar words</p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/focus.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Bad</h2>
<p style="color:white;"><br>Context dependent: has to be trained on full range of words to learn similarity</p>
</div>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Word Importance</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/whole_text.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Good</h2>
<p style="color:white;"><br>Identify words across entire magazine</p>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/ven.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Bad</h2>
<p style="color:white;"><br>Subject to random variation</p>
</div>

---

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Influence Assessment</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
<h3 style="color:white;text-align:left">Compare target texts a time period prior to and after release of the statement</h3>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="width:60%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/matrix.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Topic Models</h2>
<p style="color:white;">Compare topic word and topic frequency</p>
</div>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Topic Models: No Influence Observed</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Word Importance: Influence Observed</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Nouns: No Influence Observed</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>

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<h1 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px;color:white;" align="left">Next Steps</h1>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
	<img align="right" style="height:50%" src = "../figures/power_rhetoric/crop_results.png">
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>New target sources</li>
<li>Pre-train document embeddings</li>
<li>Compare to IS territorial control and bayat statements</li>
</ul>
<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
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