Tactic Diffusion

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.title[Devils in the Details:]     
.subtitle[Learning and Diffusion in Networks of Violent Groups]  
        
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi, PhD]  
.date[July 12, 2018]   
               
.institution[McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University]      
<img style="width:20%"  src="../figures/seal.png">
   
           
           
           
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.footnote[Created with [{Remark.js}](http://remarkjs.com/) using [{Markdown}](https://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/) +  [{MathJax}](https://www.mathjax.org/) + [{Liminal}](http://www.jmlilly.net/liminal.zip)]

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
   
   
   
   
#  What are violent groups going to do next?

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<div style="width:100%; float:left; background-color:#AF002B; border:3px; border-style:solid; border-color: black;">
   
   
   
<h3 style = "color:white">   What they <i><b>want</i></b> to do      </h3>
</div>
]
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.right-column[
<div style="width:100%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF; border:3px; border-style:solid; border-color: black;">
   
   
   
<h3 style = "color:white">   What they <i><b>can</i></b> do            </h3>
</div>
]
---

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background-color:#AF002B
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">What they <b><i>want</b></i> to do: </h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want1.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Threat from Security Forces</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want2.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Security Forces Learn</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want3.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Adapt to Survive</h3>
</div>
</div>
---

class: center
background-color:#01BAEF
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">What they <b><i>can</b></i> do: </h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can1.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Mistakes Are Dangerous</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can2.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Sharing is Risky</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can3.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Learning Is Hard</h3>
</div>

---
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Groups need to adapt...</h2>
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: right; margin-bottom:0px">But learning is hard...</h2>  
   
   
   
<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px">How do violent groups learn their craft?</h1>

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<img src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
  
<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px">Groups mitigate risk of adoption by learning from <b><i>trusted parters </i></b></h1>

---
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Implications:</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
   
   
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: left;">If groups learn from their partners, expect: </h2>

<h1>The probability of a group <i>adopting</i> a given tactic should <u><i>increase </u></i> if a group has a <i><b>trusted partner using </i></b>the tactic. </h1>

---
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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch1.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> Big Allied And Dangerous I</h2>
<h4> Cooperative Partnerships</h4>
<h4> Rivalries </h4>
<h4> Group-level covariates</h4>
<h4> Time-static</h4>

---
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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch2.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> Terrorism Knowledge Base</h2>
<h4> Attack Event Data</h4>
<h4> Tactical Information</h4>
<h4> Event-level covariates</h4>

---
class: center, 
background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch3.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h2> All Together</h2>
<h3> Whether a partner has <br> used a tactic in <br>the past three years</h3>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch4.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Unpooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">

<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<h3>Probability of adopting<br> a given tactic increases <br>when partners use the tactic in:</h3>
<h1> 16/17 tactics</h1>
<h1> 11/17 tactics significant</h1>
<h3>Small n, multiple tests</h3>

---
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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch5.png)

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Pooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   </p>
<img src='../figures/surv_trans.png' style="width:50%">
<h3 style = "margin-bottom:0px">.3 increase in P(adoption) when partners use it</h3>
<h4 style = "margin-top:0px"> Multiple dependent observations</h4>
---
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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch6.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Keystone: Hierarchical TNAM</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<p>   
   
   
   
   
   
   </p>
<img src="../figures/eq-trans.png" style="width:75%">
---
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/tactic_effects1.png" style="height:85%">

---
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background-color: #F2DC5D
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Implications:</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
   
   
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: left;">If groups learn from their partners <strong>rather than observation,</strong> expect: </h2>

<h1>The probability of a group <i>adopting</i> a given tactic should <u><i>not </u></i> increase when rivals use that tactic</h1>

---
class: center, 
background-color: #F2DC5D
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Implications:</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
   
   
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: left;">If groups learn from their partners <strong>rather than observation,</strong> expect: </h2>

<h1>The probability of a group <i>adopting</i> a given tactic should <u><i>increase </u></i> when embedded in a network structure that facilitates trust and coordination</h1>

---
class: center
background-color: 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; "><img src="../figures/structure/decent.png">Decentralized:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

</div>
<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; height:40%;float:top">
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/redundant.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Redundant Paths: </h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/autonomy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Autonomy</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Robust to Random Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/lost.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Inefficient</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/lazy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Free Riding</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/yarn.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Unraveling</h3>
</div>
</div>

---

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background-color: 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">
<img style="max-height:2.5em" src="../figures/structure/cent.png">Centralized:</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

</div>
<div style="background-color:#01BAEF; height:40%;float:top">
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/shortcut.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Information Shortcuts </h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/save-time.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Efficient</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Robust to Random Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/overwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Costly for Center</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/freedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Loses Freedom</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/one_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Targeted Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

---
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background-color: 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#AF002B;">
<img style="max-height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/freedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Loses Freedom</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#AF002B;">
<img style="max-height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/one_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Vulnerable to Targeted Removal</h3>
</div>
</div>

---
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background-color: 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; background-color:#01BAEF;">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/Xfreedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Trades For Efficiency</h3>
</div>

---
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background-color: 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left;">
<img style="max-width:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xoverwhelm.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Specialization</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; height:100%; float:left; ;">
<img style=""  src="../figures/structure/Xfreedom.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Periphery Trades For Efficiency</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:33%; float:left">
<img style="height:75%"  src="../figures/structure/Xone_target.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Evolves Around Strong Core</h3>
</div>
</div>

---

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/tactic_effects_cent.png" style="width:100%">

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# Beyond Tactics

<div style="width:100%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%; padding-top:1em"  src="../figures/aq_is.png">
<h4 style="color:white;">Al Qaeda and IS Networks</h4>
</div>
## Endogenous Process of network effects and formation
.footnote[ Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]

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.footnote[Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">When do local groups join global movements?</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:100%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%; padding-top:1em"  src="../figures/structure/results1.png">
<h4 style="color:white;">Zero inflated negative binomial Hierarchical TNAM</h4>
</div>
## Groups in centralized local networks kill more people, conduct more attacks, and survive longer

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<div>
<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#01BAEF">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/global_actors.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Global Actors</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/local.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Local Actors</h3>
</div>

</div>
## When they have no other choice.
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">How does competition impact these global networks?</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#01BAEF">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/global_strat.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Global Actors</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%;height:100%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/local_split.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Local Actors</h3>
</div>
</div>

---
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background-color:#FAFF75
.footnote[Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">How do power and ideology interact to shape network evolution?</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#01BAEF">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/syria/cooperative_net.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Cooperative Network</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%;height:100%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/syria/rival_net.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Rivalry Network</h3>
</div>
</div>

## Constructing new network data from Syrian Civil War
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">How do you even measure soft power</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<div>

<div style="width:100%; float:left;background-color: AF002B">
<img style="width:100%"  src="../figures/power_rhetoric/aq_wordimp.png">
<h3 style="color:black;">Al Qaeda Influence</h3>
</div>

</div>
### By tracking diffusion of topics from official statements to discussions on social media
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Backup</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">

---
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Centralization</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/netcent.png" style="height:70%">
---
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Eigenvector Centrality</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/eig.png" style="height:70%">
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Lethality</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
<img src="../figures/structure/leth.png" style="height:70%">

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