Tactic Diffusion

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.title[Devils in the Details:]     
.subtitle[Learning and Diffusion in Networks of Violent Groups]  
        
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi]  
.date[February 22, 2017]   
               
.institution[McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University]      
<img style="width:20%"  src="../figures/seal.png">
   
           
           
           
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
   
   
   
   
#  What are violent groups going to do next?

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<h3 style = "color:white">   What they <i><b>want</i></b> to do      </h3>
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<h3 style = "color:white">   What they <i><b>can</i></b> do            </h3>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">What they <b><i>want</b></i> to do: </h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

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<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want1.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Threat from Security Forces</h3>
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<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want2.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Security Forces Learn</h3>
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<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/want3.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Adapt to Survive</h3>
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</div>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; margin-bottom:0px; text-align:left; ">What they <b><i>can</b></i> do: </h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; float:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can1.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Mistakes Are Dangerous</h3>
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<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can2.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Sharing is Risky</h3>
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<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/diffusion/can3.png">
<h3 style = "color:white; ">Learning Is Hard</h3>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Groups need to adapt...</h2>
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: right; margin-bottom:0px">But learning is hard...</h2>  
   
   
   
<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px">How do violent groups learn their craft?</h1>

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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px">Groups mitigate risk of adoption by learning from <b><i>trusted parters </i></b></h1>

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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Hypothesis Test</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
   
   
   
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align: left;">If groups learn from their partners, expect: </h2>

<h1>The probability of a group <i>adopting</i> a given tactic should <b><i>increase </b></i> if a group has a <i><b>trusted partner using </i></b>the tactic. </h1>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch1.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
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<h2> Big Allied And Dangerous I</h2>
<h4> Cooperative Partnerships</h4>
<h4> Rivalries </h4>
<h4> Group-level covariates</h4>
<h4> Time-static</h4>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch2.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
   
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<h2> Terrorism Knowledge Base</h2>
<h4> Attack Event Data</h4>
<h4> Tactical Information</h4>
<h4> Event-level covariates</h4>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch3.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Data</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<p>   
   
   
   
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<h2> All Together</h2>
<h3> Whether a partner has <br> used a tactic in <br>the past three years</h3>

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background-image: url(../figures/seg_arch4.png)
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Unpooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">

<p>   
   
   
   
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<h3>Probability of adopting<br> a given tactic increases <br>when partners use the tactic in:</h3>
<h1> 16/17 tactics</h1>
<h1> 11/17 tactics significant</h1>
<h3>Small n, multiple tests</h3>

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<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Empirical Building Blocks: Pooled</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
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<img src='../figures/surv_trans.png' style="width:50%">
<h3 style = "margin-bottom:0px">.3 increase in P(adoption) when partners use it</h3>
<h4 style = "margin-top:0px"> Multiple dependent observations</h4>
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.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Keystone: Hierarchical TNAM</h2>
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<p>   
   
   
   
   
   
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<img src="../figures/eq-trans.png" style="width:75%">
---
class: center, 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/tactic_effects1.png" style="height:85%">
---
class: center, 
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
<h2 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Results</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; height: 5px; width:75%">
   
<img src="../figures/tactic_effects2.png" style="height:80%">