Bipolar Jihadism

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.title[Bipolar Jihadist World Order]     
.subtitle[How Competition between al Qaeda and IS shapes the Global Jihadist System]  
   
 
               
               
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi]  
.institution[Georgetown University]      
               
   
 
.date[April 4, 2018]   
           
           
           
.center[]       
        
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#  Al Qaeda Network: 2000's
<img style="width:100%"  src="../figures/aq_net.png">
.footnote[ Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]
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# Jihadist Network Today
<img style="width:100%"  src="../figures/aq_is.png">
.footnote[ Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]
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background-color:#000000
.footnote[Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation  Laila A. Wahedi, PhD -- @lwahedi -- law98@georgetown.edu]
   
<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Anarchy</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/gavel.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">No Contract Enforcement</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/tug.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Competition Over Resources</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:32%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/distance.png">
<h3 style="color:#FAFF75;">Proximity Matters</h3>
</div>
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left;">Local and Global Actors</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
* Local Actors: 
 * Compete with proximate actors
#  
* Global Actors 
 * Need local help to operate locally
 * Compete with one another
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Local and Global Actors</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div>
<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#01BAEF">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/global_actors.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Global Actors</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/local.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Local Actors</h3>
</div>

</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Competition Over Global Power</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:24.5%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/audience.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Audience</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:24.5%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/legitimacy.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Legitimacy</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:24.5%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/net_goods.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Network Goods</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:24.5%; float:left">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/brokerage.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Brokerage</h3>
</div>
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<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Brokerage</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:50%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/brokerage.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Leverage</h2>
<h3 style="color:white;">Power to cut a group off from the network</h3>
</div>
<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:50%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/brokerage_comp.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Competitor</h2>
<h3 style="color:white;">Global competitor provides alternative access</h3>
</div>
<h2 style="color:white;">Competition with IS reduces both IS and al Qaeda leverage</h2>

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<h1 style="text-transform: none; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Effects of Bipolarity</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div>

<div style="width:50%; float:left;background-color:#01BAEF">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/global_strat.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Global Actors</h3>
</div>

<div style="width:50%;height:100%; float:left;background-color:#AF002B">
<img style="width:75%"  src="../figures/bipolarity/local_split.png">
<h3 style="color:white;">Local Actors</h3>
</div>
</div>
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<h2 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Paired Comparison: <br> al Shabaab & Boko Haram</h2>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:50%;"  src="../figures/bipolarity/shabaab.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">al Shabaab</h2>
<img style="width:50%;"  src="../figures/bipolarity/aq_flag.png">
</div>
<div style="width:50%; float:left">
<img style="width:50%;"  src="../figures/bipolarity/boko_haram.png">
<h2 style="color:white;">Boko Haram</h2>
<img style="width:50%;"  src="../figures/bipolarity/is_flag.png">
</div>

<h2 style="color:white;">Why did they diverge?</h2>
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<div style="width:10%; float:left">
<img style="width:100%;float:left"  src="../figures/bipolarity/shabaab.png">
</div>
<h4> </h4>
<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">al Shabaab</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Expectations</h2>
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>IS recruitment</li>
<li>Tensions among factions within al Shabaab</li>
<li>IS targeting al Shabaab if they remain loyal to al Qaeda</li>
</ul>
<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Observations</h2>
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>IS media campaign to attract al Shabaab leadership and members</li>
<li>Internal purges to prevent defection, one independent commander succeeds with 20 fighters.</li>
<li>IS uses Puntland toehold to build opposition to al Shabaab</li>
</ul>
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<div style="width:10%; float:left">
<img style="width:100%;float:left"  src="../figures/bipolarity/boko_haram.png">
</div>
<h4> </h4>
<h1 style="text-transform: none; color:white; text-align:left; margin-bottom:0px">Boko Haram</h1>
<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="float:left; padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">

<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Expectations</h2>
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>IS recruitment</li>
<li>Tensions among factions</li>
</ul>
<h2 style="color:white;text-align:left">Observations</h2>
<ul style="color:white;text-align:left">
<li>IS recruits Boko Haram</li>
<li>Al Qaeda loyal forces formally split </li>

</ul>

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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Systemic Implications </h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
	<img align="right" style="width:50%" src = "../figures/worldNetworkImage.png">
* Competition between IS and al Qaeda playing out among affiliates
* Fracturing as local competitors get new sponsorship options
* Challenge for IS to challenge al Qaeda's global network
<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
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