Defense

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.title[Bitter Friends]     
.subtitle[How Relationships between Violent Non-State Actors Form, Are Used, and Shape Behavior]  
   
 
               
               
               
.author[Laila A. Wahedi]  
.institution[Georgetown University]      
               
   
 
.date[April 19, 2017]   
           
           
           
.center[]       
        
.footnote[Created with [{Remark.js}](http://remarkjs.com/) using [{Markdown}](https://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/) +  [{MathJax}](https://www.mathjax.org/) + [{Liminal}](http://www.jmlilly.net/liminal.zip)]

---
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.title[Bloody Benefactors]     
.subtitle[A Model of Transregional Terrorist Sponsorship in Civil War]

.center[]
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

---
# Asset Specificity: 
<h2 style="text-transform: none; margin-bottom:0px">Groups are good at different things</h2>
	<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:0px; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
.left-column[

### Local Groups
* Local Infrastructure
	* Local Networks
	* Local legitimacy
	* Territory
	
]
.right-column[
 
### Transregional Groups
* Global Infrastructure
	* Donor Networks
	* Training, intelligence
	* Global legitimacy 	
]
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Who Transregional Groups Want:</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<div>
	<br>
	<br>
	<div style="width:32%; float:left; background-color:#d4e7fe; border:3px; border-style:solid; border-color: black;">
	<h4 align="left" style="margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:3px;">Ideologues</h4>
		<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" align="left" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.25em; height: 3px; width:75%">
	<p style="color:red; clear:both">✘</p>
	</div>
	<div style="width:32%; float:left; background-color:#d4e7fe; border:3px; border-style:solid; border-color: black;">
		<h4 align="left" style="margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:3px;">Weak Groups</h4>
		<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" align="left" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.25em; height: 3px; width:75%">
	<p style="color:red; clear:both">✘</p>
	</div>
	<div style="width:32%; float:left; background-color:#d4e7fe; border:3px; border-style:solid; border-color: black;">
		<h4 align="left" style="margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:3px;">Strong Groups</h4>
		<img class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" align="left" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.25em; height: 3px; width:75%">
	<p style="color:green; clear:both">✔ </p>
	</div>
	</div>
	.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Strong Local Groups</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>

* Prefer autonomy
* Have what they need
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
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.title[Anti-Social Networks]     
.subtitle[The Effects of Violent Group Cooperative Network Structure on Capacity]

.center[]
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Beyond Direct Partnerships</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
<img style="width:100%"  src="../figures/netshapes.png">
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
class: Two-column layout
<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Effect of Local Structure</h2>
<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
.left-column[<img style="width:100%"  src="../figures/netshapes_top.png">]
.right-column[
* Contextualized Knowledge

* Specialization

* Leverage

* Coordination

* Focal Point

* Security
]

.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
class: Two-column layout
<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Findings</h2>
<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
<br>
.left-column[<img style="height:7em"  src="../figures/netshapes_cent.png">
### Violence

* More Violence
* Positive but diminishing marginal returns to partnership

### Survival

* Well connected groups survive longest
]

.right-column[<img style="height:7em"  src="../figures/netshapes_flat.png">
### Violence
* Less Violence
* Negative diminishing marginal returns to partnership

### Survival

* Well-connected groups die soonest
]

.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
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.title[Devils in the Details]     
.subtitle[Learning and Diffusion in Networks of Violent Groups]

.center[]
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]
---
class: middle:
<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Theory</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
	
## Groups must adapt to survive
* Adopting new tactics helps them adapt

## Adopting and sharing tactics is risky
* Sharing implies revealing secret operational procedures
* Adopting risks operatives and reputation

## Partnerships help reduce the costs of sharing and adopting
* Partners less likely to leak information
* Helps groups learn to do it right the first time
---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Modeling Challenges</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
## Endogeneity

* Propensity to adopt or learning?

## Time Polynomials:
* Look at propensity to adopt at a given time
	* Given partner use in the recent past
	* Given no use previously
	* Straight forward interpretation

--
	
## Activity Periods:

* Groups that don't exist cannot adopt a tactic
* Need to go back in time to observe first adoption
	
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Multi-Level Logit</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
## Illicit Organizations Have Secrets

* Random baseline for each group over time
* Add covariates we have

## Different Tactical Difficulty
* Randome baseline of adoption of each tactic type

## Interpretation
* Probability of a <i> given group </i> adopting a <i> given tactic </i> 
in a month contingent on failure to adopt in the past, and whether a partner
used that tactic. 
		
.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Evidence of Diffusion</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
## Groups are more likely to adopt tactics their partners have used

## Well-connected groups in centralized networks are most likely to adopt from partners

## Well-connected groups in decentralized networks are least likely to adopt from partners

.footnote[ Laila A. Wahedi -- Follow along at Wahedi.US, under Current Presentation -- law98@georgetown.edu]

---
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<h2 style="margin-bottom:0px; padding:0px" align="left">Note on Final Draft</h2>
	<img align="left" class="plain" src="../figures/line.png" style="padding:0;margins:0;margin-bottom:.5em; align:left; height: 5px; width:75%">
	<br>
### Graduate School asked me to remove the abstract sections from the papers